If US citizens know how to do one thing it is to make election day a stressful event. It usually happens when the states are divided between the candidates. That’s the situation we have right now. A recent poll conducted in Pennsylvania shows that there is a division among voters between the two candidates. On the other side, the bookmakers see Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris with different eyes. Betting markets believe that at the moment there is no division and that Trump is one with more voters on his side.
The most recent event that turned the tide of voters’ satisfaction toward Donald was the debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz. After the vice presidents had their say, betting markets reacted and currently they are showing Trump as the favorite to win in November. If you don’t trust us, see the odds on 2024 US president elections by yourself. In recent weeks we have seen more and more bets placing money on Donald Trump winning in the state of Pennsylvania. Considering that the winner of the election is the one with more states on his side, we can see why currently Trump is trending.
Furthermore, we have bettors pushing for Trump’s win in more than one state. When you know that we’re talking about Wisconsin and Michigan you can tell that his win appears to be more likely than only a few months ago. In fact, this is the first time since early July that Trump appears to have these two states in his hands. At the moment, the ex-POTUS has a 54.7% chance of winning the whole thing. During the last few months, he was never this heavily favored against the Democrat candidate Kamala Harris. The odds are favoring Trump and the more they turn his way, the more bets are flocking in backing the real estate mogul turned politician.
Considering that this is the first time that you can legally bet on the US elections by using the US betting platform is a precedent in itself. Another precedent is just how much Trump’s odds were moved by his chances of winning in one state became public. Pennsylvania is the state that is swinging the needle right now the most. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, and up until recently, Kamala Harris was the favorite to win there. If the numbers go back to favoring her, and she wins in all states where she’s leading the polls now plus Pennsylvania she would hold 270 electoral votes.
While four weeks is a lot of time, trust us, 5th November is just around the corner. If we look at the past results, and the election circles of 2016 and 2020, Trump is in a lot better position right now. The polls in 2016 gave him only a 17% probability of coming on top of Hilary Clinton. That’s right, Trump was the underdog and he still managed to win. Nowadays, the voters know him, he has a mandate in the White House, and people know what to expect of him, while Kamala Harris is going to be a new face for many voters.
While relatively unknown when compared to Trump, Harris has a strong footing in the Democratic communities. Also, it is important to know that voters know way less about Donald Trump than Hilary Clinton back in 2016. Today, the chairs are reversed and this might backfire on Trump. Or not? After all, the current betting markets still favor Trump, and the only question remaining is whether there’s enough time for Harris to win over the voters in states where she’s not even close to a win.
When you look at the exposure of both candidates you might get the picture of why Donald is where he is at the moment. Harris has spent a lot of time being vice president but she failed to receive enough exposure for a presidential race such as this one. Trump on the other hand has a 9/10 exposure. It would be a clear 10 he just doesn’t stir too much controversy on occasion. But, you know how they say there is no negative publicity, and it would appear that Trump knows this much better than Kamala Harris.
Also, for a long time, it was believed that Trump’s adversary would be Joe Biden. Back then many people decided that Donald was their favorite. Some of them stick to their decision, while many have second thoughts. With less than one month to go, we have an interesting race ahead of us. Trump is the favorite but he is not near the 70% probability he had in the polls in July. Yet, history is on his side. It only happened twice in the history of the US election that the favorite lost.
The first time it happened was in 1948 when Truman won against Dewey. The second time it happened was in 2016 when Trump won against Hillary Clinton. Considering that she had an 81% probability of a win eight years ago, the ex-POTUS made a surprise run at the presidency. So, since 1866 it only happened twice that the favorite to be the US president lost. This is an interesting fact, and seeing how the bookmakers see Donald, it is hard to believe that it will happen the third time.
This is Trump’s third run at the presidency. As we said, he made a shocking win over Hilary and then lost against Joe Biden. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, was favored by 68% to become the next president and he did. It was a defeat the then-reigning president Trump didn’t take lightly. It was a situation that proved that Trump has some loyal followers who would go to lengths to support him as we saw in the Capitol.
This time around we hope that there will be no incidents and that the best man/woman is going to win. Remember, the best man is not the one favored by the bookies, nor the one that runs the polls. The best one is the one that wins in the end, so place your best carefully.
